Thanksgiving Travel: Will Air Travel Bounce Back in Time?

The federal government has reopened, ending a prolonged six-week impasse in Washington, and now the focus shifts to the air travel sector as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. With just over a week until the unofficial start of the Thanksgiving travel rush, airlines are bracing for a record-setting 31 million passengers expected to travel between November 21 and December 1. The stakes are high, as the Sunday following Thanksgiving could potentially break records for the busiest day ever at U.S. airports.

However, the recent weeks have seen tens of thousands of flight cancellations and delays, raising concerns about whether holiday travel will run smoothly or if travelers will face lingering disruptions from the shutdown. Shye Gilad, a former airline pilot and professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, cautions that the recovery won’t be instantaneous. “It’s not a light switch,” he noted, emphasizing that this travel season may be more challenging than usual.

Despite these concerns, there is a growing sense of optimism as flight cancellations and delays begin to decline, and critical aviation workers are set to receive their paychecks. The Airlines for America trade group expressed confidence that the reopening would enable U.S. airlines to restore operations just in time for the busy Thanksgiving holiday.

Several key factors will influence how quickly air travel returns to normal. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) must decide when to lift mandatory flight restrictions at many of the nation’s busiest airports. Currently, airlines are required to cancel 6% of flights at 40 major hubs, a restriction that will continue to fuel cancellations. However, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced it would not expand these restrictions, a positive sign for travelers.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy indicated that the timeline for airlines to return to a full schedule hinges on air traffic controllers returning to work. Fortunately, recent reports show that staffing issues at air traffic control facilities are improving, with only a few “staffing triggers” reported. This uptick in staffing has coincided with a decrease in flight delays and cancellations, signaling that the worst may be behind us.

Airlines are now tasked with untangling their schedules after making sudden flight reductions during the shutdown. Michael McCormick, an air traffic control expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, remarked that the sooner airlines can restore connectivity, the better it will be for Thanksgiving travelers. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian expressed optimism, stating, “I think you’ll be as close to normal as you can get by Friday-Saturday.”

As airlines begin to wind down flexible travel waivers that allowed passengers to change or cancel flights without penalty during the shutdown, travelers should be aware of some quick tips to ensure a smoother journey this Thanksgiving.

1. Book Early Flights: If your ticket allows for changes and you have some flexibility, try to book flights in the morning. Travel disruptions tend to increase as the day progresses.

2. Familiarize Yourself with Airline Apps: Download and familiarize yourself with your airline’s mobile app. This will enable you to quickly rebook if any issues arise.

3. Consider Early Returns: If you’re looking to avoid crowds, consider returning home a day or two early, as airlines anticipate the busiest travel days will be Sunday, November 30, and Monday, December 1.

4. Plan for Security Wait Times: With the government fully operational again, the MyTSA app should be functional, allowing you to check real-time security wait times at airports.

5. Utilize TSA PreCheck: If you’re a TSA PreCheck or Global Entry member, ensure your Known Traveler Number is attached to your reservation for expedited security screening.

6. Be Prepared at Checkpoints: Remember to adhere to TSA’s 3-1-1 liquids rule and keep your shoes on at checkpoints, as this will be the first holiday season without the shoe removal requirement.

7. Practice Patience and Kindness: After a tumultuous few weeks for airport employees, showing grace and understanding toward airline, security, and airport staff can enhance your travel experience. Shye Gilad suggests maintaining a positive attitude, recognizing that challenges may arise.

As Thanksgiving approaches, travelers should prepare for a potentially hectic travel season but remain hopeful that improvements in air travel will lead to a smoother experience. With the right planning and a positive mindset, you can navigate the busy holiday travel landscape with greater ease.